Saying a dog without injury cannot back up 7 days later is simply rubbish. If the packed cell volume and the dogs weight is the same as the previous week the dog will run the same time excluding bumps or changed track conditions.

Every day when trainers are shovelling up the dropping, walking the dogs, brushing the dog, feeding the dog, travelling with the dog they are thinking about all for the dog. Until anyone does this day in and day out they simply have no idea.

Someone with common sense instead of B/S mathematical theories on how to assess a greyhounds fitness to race

people engaging with this guy need their head read imo. u r wasting your time and sanity.

Tony,

I am surprised to see you introducing hopes, guesses and unsubstantiated theories to a discussion where I have listed multiple facts - time and time again. Why has no-one addressed those facts?

In particular, I am astonished you could write that last sentence.

Re "Saying a dog without injury cannot back up 7 days later is simply rubbish" - so why don't they? Start with Xylia Allen and Space Star and work backwards (but don't use your form data as it is incomplete - use GRV's).

Neither you nor any of the other abusive comments and rants on this thread have advanced a shred of evidence to disprove those facts. Not a shred. Throwing rocks does not count.

To say nothing about quite a lot of statements from well known vets.

I am sending you a box of tissue's you have a little bullshit on your lip
you are the reason this country has to put directions on Shampoo .Bruce

Trying to bring Bruce back to reality is like trying to send astronauts to Uranus

You will never achieve it

To my G Data friends back off the Bruce although hardheaded he can be.
Were all big boys so just shut out the Bruce short comings and let it be.
If nothing informative or factual is getting through to Bruce then its not your worry.
( its Bruce & co worry) So just read and follow restrain from putting in the boot on posts

Bruce I request you list what GData members can help or do for your project.
(if anything)
Currently This Topic resembles War & Peace, so now its time for peace and not war, rationally by all please.
Slow down the nit picking and reduce the one upmanshjp game.

Bruce IBM Deep Blue 2 was a long time ago and computer programming as gone forward leaps and bounds. IBM programmers faced an impossible mathematical task yet despite all the flack and critics they did it, they found an equation that not only recognised a dubious move ( ?! ) but now Deep Blue 2 Played dubious moves. Never done before. Kasparov believed Deep Blue 2 was aided by a team of grandmasters. Kasparov totally lost his marbles and become paranoid and totally lost the plot. Kasparov last game he lost to Deep Blue was so undignified and humiliating for a world champion, an average club player could have played better.
Bruce I look at what you trying to achieve and best I can do is wish you lots of good luck. Bruce You might want to get measured up for a straight jacket.

Graham

I hate to disappoint you but you or Bruce or Albert Einstein, will never solve the mysteries of greyhound racing with mathematics

Its only useful for measuring meat, supplements in a diet, weighing the dog or simple arithmetic to calculate a sectional time

Whats mathematics got to do with the B/S of stayers supposedly not backing up after 7 days?

You think you can put all that into a formula to predict a race result...come on please

And don't you start with it...you of all people should know better

Michael remind me one day to tell you some Hindu folklore.
Gnats bathing with Elephants

Re "Mathematics for me is paramount ( not bullshit ) Everything can be measured, valued and solved by Mathematics. Albert Einstein
My understanding is What Bruce & co are trying to do is find an accurate complicated mathematical equation to implement in their programming, its a humungous mind blowing project that could well send a person or two bonkers. (Im serious)".

Not really. I am not interested in further developing the program (now put to bed anyway). If you revert to my initial post, I made some background observations and then asked questions and sought comments.

The vast majority of comments ignored that request but attacked the writer (me) personally for unknown reasons. That includes Tony who told us about training, which is all very interesting but only indirectly related to the subject I brought up.

Personally, I am not competent to talk about breeding, training or husbandry. But I can talk about racing, performances and tracks - hence my queries about stamina etc, directed to those who might contribute some extra knowledge.

Perhaps the origin of my thinking could be in a statement by the late Bill Pearson who said, "They are not as robust as they used to be".

Whatever, there is a whole host of evidence which amplifies that claim - some of which I have presented here. It is pointless to deny it as it is all in the record book.

Apart from anything else, we now end up with a policy question: Do we need a Rule which bans stayers running twice inside 14 days? If you like, you can extend that to a probably more vital area: Is the strength of the breed as a whole on the decline?

You see, Graham, IBM played around with Deep Blue as a publicity gimmick to support its development of the PC as a device. It succeeded and was then joined or exceeded by numerous other mobs. Its impact on the world was huge so we all moved ahead in leaps and bounds and can now make a bet using only a thumb rather than a brain.

Unfortunately, greyhound racing moves ahead only when a tsunami arrives and forces it to change - not otherwise. Some evidence of that is the bloke who got pinched for possums recently. Or those who still complain about skins on lures. Or those who dump on WDA for demonstrating what the community will wear these days.

My single aim is to make greyhound racing better rather than see it wallow in the mire of the 1950s or dependent on the whims of mugs in pubs. I am not doing too well at the moment but that does not mean it is not worthwhile trying.

Unlike Kasparov, I will not have a nervous breakdown because I have severed my connection with the practical aspects of the industry for reasons I have explained several times. I was forced to do that because of changed circumstances, not because I wanted to do it.

How to support the project? Ask authorities to conduct an independent review of the facts and the trends. There is ample evidence to underwrite that need, no matter what your current view.

The next chapter of War and Peace will be written after the final of the Summer Plate this weekend.

From your haphazard figures cited above they show that 38% of the times dogs actually ran faster, which blows your argument that they dont back up, off the screen. Surely you have better figures than the ones you have quoted, to prove your argument? A tolerance of 5% is acceptable, but 38%? Theres some maths to think about. Furthermore, you havent factored other variables (theyve been mentioned) into the equation.

Deep Blue 2 Yes I agree IBM shareholders did rather well didnt they.

Did you miss that one?

Conveniently missed

many of late have had the same aim Graham and look at what's happened to the industry.

Sandro,
As you probably know, the dog is based in Victoria, but raced at Albion Park (Qld) twice then WP (NSW) n this Saturday again at WP (NSW) in 30 plus degrees heat n high humidity, poor air quality (not a variable that I was referring to earlier) and on average, 8 days apart. Thats exceptional.

Here's another case history which I wrote about in 2015 concerning that fine but unlucky stayer Space Star. This is part of an article in ARG discussing possible GOTYs.

The case of Space Star, and the staying fraternity in general, is interesting. This dog moved up to the staying caper only last August after some record breaking middle distance runs at the NSW provincials. Since then, it has dominated staying races at four tracks in three states, highlighted by an amazing effort in February to break Nellie Noodles longstanding record at The Meadows running 41.93.

Nevertheless, its times have been irregular, even when winning. That run at The Meadows was followed seven days later by an ordinary loss at the same track, 10 lengths slower than its own record. Could the first run have been what vet Dr John Kohnke termed a gutbuster where dogs leading all the way pull out all the stops but then find it hard to repeat the effort the following week?

Actually, that pattern is consistent with much of Space Stars history. In August 2014 it won well at Wenty then failed the following week. A September 2014 win was followed by three failures. In November 2014 it won at Sandown then failed the next week.

Even as it matured, the majority of its wins have been followed by a much slower run the following week notably at Wenty in January 2015, in March/April 2015 at Wenty and again just now in the Gold Cup at Wenty when it ran five lengths slower than in its heat. Others where it continued winning in similar times were because the base time was pretty average in the first place. The occasional longer break than seven days also helped.

Last Saturdays Gold Cup at Wenty painted the picture. Not only was Space Stars run slower, but so were all the others in the race. Their final times ranged from five to 15 lengths slower than what they ran in the heats. That included Sweet It Is which could manage only a distant 4th place, a full second slower than in its heat. Unusually for it, the bitch was clearly not back to its normal hard running fitness level after a seasonal holiday (never mind the bumps that happens in all its races, mostly self-inflicted). It did go well in its heat, but not in the final.

Wenty was wet but there is no indication that affected times. All tracks are wet to some degree. Over the sprint trip, Uno Suzie equalled its recent best time in a 29.76 win, for example.

For the umpteenth time, we have more hard evidence that the vast majority of dogs cannot repeat staying runs when they have only seven days to recover. No matter what their basic ability, they just cant do it. Further, it is grossly misleading for some to claim that individual trainers are best placed to assess their dogs endurance capability. They may well be able to rub them down and check for problems but they have no way of knowing what is happening inside the body. Only exhaustive blood and other tests could reveal that but we have yet to hear of anyone doing so on a regular basis. Apart from anything else, it is expensive to carry out.

Finally, irrespective of its excellent performances, Space Stars domination of the staying ranks tells us emphatically that the opposition is just not up to scratch. At best they can pull out one good run yet never repeat it. More often they just plod.

Avoiding quick back-ups is a no-brainer if you want to get the best out of a stayer. Unfortunately, clubs and authorities are just as guilty as trainers in asking dogs to do the impossible.

Probably of more importance is a basic policy question. Do we want to take serious steps towards building up the ranks of dogs with real stamina? The long term industry concentration on fast beginners is perhaps understandable if you want to grab quick returns but it is obviously doing no good for the staying ranks.